International Committee on issues of Global Changes of the Geological Environment, “GEOCHANGE”

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GEOCHANGE: Problems of Global Changes of the Geological Environment. Vol.1, London, 2010,  ISSN 2218-5798


The conclusions drawn on the basis of the initial research findings described in Chapters 6 and 7 are as follows:

1. Magnetic poles’ drift acceleration

The explosive, more than fivefold growth of the North Magnetic Pole’s drift rate from 1990 to the present has been accompanied by a significant increase in Earth’s endogenous activity. In 1998, the North Magnetic Pole’s drift rate approached its maximum value. From roughly 1998 on, there has been observed a sharp increase in the number of large earthquakes and earthquake fatalities, of volcanic eruptions and tsunamis (catastrophic, medium-sized and weak).

2. Anomalous
J2 coefficient change

1998 saw the beginning of abnormal changes in some of Earth’s geophysical parameters, a leap in J2 coefficient values in particular. This coefficient is determined using measurements made by the laser ranging system from US satellites.

The J2 coefficient demonstrates the dynamics of the ratio between Earth’s equatorial and polar radii. According to NASA, the J2 coefficient had been decreasing for many years supposedly due to the release of meltwater from the mantle since the ice age. This was indicative of an increase in Earth’s radius at the poles and its reduction at the equator. Meanwhile, new data show that since 1998 the J2 coefficient began to grow. This process reflects the global redistribution of Earth’s masses, as well as Earth’s expansion at the equator and its flattening at the poles. Thus, some global-scale event is thought to have occurred in 1998; this could mean both global redistribution of Earth’ masses and minor changes of its shape.

3. Global sea level change

During the period between 1997 and 1999, sea level fluctuations of the Indian Ocean, Western and Central Pacific were in antiphase to fluctuations of the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean. While the level of the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean began to rise sharply from 1997 with a peak in 1998 (about 3 cm), the level of the Indian Ocean, Western and Central Pacific was falling with a 1998 minimum (about 3 cm). The timing of these processes coincided with the J2 coefficient anomaly. Meanwhile, an article by B. F. Chao and others (B.F. Chao et al., 2003) indicates that even considering the model of possible impact of the redistribution of water masses in the world ocean, the actually observed effect of the J2 coefficient is 3 times greater than those influences.

4. Global tropospheric temperature change

An anomalous, explosive growth of the global tropospheric temperature was observed in 1998.

5. Large earthquakes

A comparative analysis of anomalous J2 variations and the dynamics of numbers of large M> 8 earthquakes between 1980 and May 2010 has revealed that starting from 1997-1999, there has been a surge in the number of large earthquakes and fatalities caused by them according to the exponential law.

6. Volcanic eruptions

A comparative analysis of volcanic eruptions and J2 variations has also showed that 1997-1998 were years of deep minimum of volcanic activity, followed by a sharp increase in volcanic activity observed to date.

7. Tsunamis

Since 1998, there has been observed a dramatic change in the tendency for statistical distribution of the annual numbers of catastrophic, medium-sized and weak tsunamis. The “leap” in the annual tsunami number statistics, witnessed since 1998 is described by exponential trends.

8. Floods

Analysis of the evolution of numbers of severe U.S. floods over the past 100 years makes it possible to conclude that there has been a substantial increase in this indicator since 1998.

Studying the dynamics of the numbers of worldwide flood notifications from 2002 to late May, 2010 (according to the Global Flood Detection System, an experimental system aimed at providing flood disaster alerts) has shown a steady increase in the number of floods since 2005. Meanwhile, comparing the number of seasonal floods from 2005 to May 2010 (from February to late May) for the same period in previous years indicates some constant increase in the number of seasonal floods from year to year. In particular, the number of worldwide flood notifications received for the period between February 2010 and late May 2010 is more than 2,5 times higher than the figures for the same periods from 2002 to 2006 inclusive.

9. Tornadoes

Germany has been given as an example of a sharp increase in the number of tornadoes since 1998. There were 2,5 times more tornadoes in Germany for 5 years (between 2000 and 2005) than over the preceding ten years. A similar situation can be observed in the U.S. (Section 4.1.2).

10. Hurricanes and storms

A surge was observed between 1998 and 2007 in the number of North Atlantic tropical storms, and this tendency continues today. An increase in the total number of Atlantic Basin hurricanes from 1944 to the present is observed as well (Section 4.1.1.).

11. Forest fires

The dynamics of the annual numbers of U.S. forest fires from 1960 to 2007 reveals their tendency to grow, with the “surge” beginning in 1998 as well.

A similar pattern in the dynamics of forest fire statistics is observed in other regions of Earth. For instance, Kazakhstan in 1997 witnessed a “surge” in the form of a sharp increase in the number of forest fires and fire-affected areas.

As for the territory of Eastern and Western Europe and the CIS, there is a tendency for the annual numbers of forest fires to soar as well, with the general nature of their dynamics described by an exponential trend. Around 1998, there was observed a “surge” in the number of forest fires.

12. The role of natural factors in global climate change:

- The role of Earth’s volcanic activity in global climate change is significantly higher than suggested in IPCC reports.

- Increased degassing of the mantle during the periods of intensification of Earth’s endogenous activity can be one of the main factors causing global temperature changes. This process occurs as a result of the following: growing number of volcanic eruptions; increased seismic activity and higher rate of gases entering the atmosphere through deep faults in the crust; deep gases penetrating into the world ocean and subsequently the atmosphere as a result of intensification of the spreading processes. All this ought to result in higher amount of greenhouse gases released from the mantle into the atmosphere.

- An important role in climate change is attributed to global changes in the parameters of the geomagnetic field and magnetosphere; this refers in particular to the more than 500% increase in the North Magnetic Pole’s drift rate and reduction of the geomagnetic field intensity. Today, the impact of magnetospheric processes on Earth’s climate is considered a proven scientific fact.

- Global climate change is also affected by solar activity, solar constant variations (flux of solar radiation) in particular, which is also a proven scientific fact.

As a result of the studies conducted, a conclusion has been drawn about the beginning of the so-called global “energy spike” in our planet’s energy manifesting itself across all its strata: the lithosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere and magnetosphere. The starting point for the global “energy spike” is roughly 1998.

The global “energy spike” is explicitly reflected in the soaring statistical indicators for the vast majority of natural disasters most dangerous to humanity: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, tornadoes, hurricanes, storms, floods and forest fires.

The role of natural factors in global climate change is much more substantial than suggested in the official IPCC conclusions.

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