International Committee on issues of Global Changes of the Geological Environment, “GEOCHANGE”

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Khalilov: there remain three more cycles of high seismic activity this year

Exclusive interview of AZE.az with Professor Elchin Khalilov – the Chairman of International Committee for Global Changes of Geological Environment GEOCHANGE (Germany), President of Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes (England).

-Mr. Khalilov, about 3 months have been passed since catastrophic earthquake and tsunami in Japan of 11 March 2011. In spite of the fact that this earthquake, according to experts’ opinion, threw back the development of Japan for tens of years, the people in other countries are gradually recovering from shock, made by monstrous scales of natural catastrophe and concentrate their attention on other vital problems. Has the nature really “let off steam” and calmed down for a long time?

- It’s not quite so. The nature really “let off steam” in the region of Japan, but its accumulation occurs with accelerating paces. What does it mean? The matter is that the accumulation and discharge of energy in Earth interior take place according to definite cyclicity. There exist the cycles of hyperactivity of the Earth, when the catastrophic earthquakes and volcano eruptions are activated many times. There were a lot of such cycles in the life of our planet.

The cycles of the heightened endogenous activity of the Earth are the pulsations of internal energy during which the processes in the core and mantle are activated, and this energy escapes from deep interior. Along with megacycles in hundreds millions of years there are also micro-cycles, calculated with periods in several months. When we give long-term and medium-term forecast of seismic activity there is taken into account the correlation of the maximal possible number of cycles of different scales.

The fact that during several months our planet “has calmed down” a little, doesn’t mean that at last the seismic activity has gone down. It is only the period of “lull” before another storm when the accumulation of regular portion of energy is taking place. Unfortunately, our researches, as before, confirm that the scales of seismic activity will be increasing commensurably to solar activity with maximum values in the years of 2013-2014.

- Can you tell our readers which months to expect the high seismic activity in 2011?

- Lately the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes has prepared the information about medium-term forecast of dynamics of seismic activity of the Earth for 2011. This information will be placed on Internet sites of GNFE, GEOCHANGE and WOSCO one of these days. Meanwhile we decided in the first place to give this information to AZE.az. I am giving you the graph where is shown the dynamics of seismic and volcanic activity of our planet in 2011.

So, three more cycles of high seismic activity remained this year. The maximum of the first cycle of seismic activity of 2011 has covered the period – end of February – beginning of April, the maximum of the second cycle will cover the second half of June - July, the third cycle is expected to be in October, and the fourth cycle is forecasted to be the highest and going from the end of December of 2011 to January of 2012.

- Mr.Khalilov, the year of 2012 is approaching, and it scares many people. May be the famous American film “2012” and calendar of Maya have poured oil on the flames. Many people take this date as “the Day of Doom” and “Apocalypse”. What do you think about it?

- Undoubtedly, the American film “2012”, shot with using of modern computer technologies and great graphics, focused the attention of people of the world on the problem of possible approaching natural catastrophe of the planetary scale, having combined its date with the calendar of Maya.

How grounded is it? If to take into account that the calendar of Maya is the system of chronology, then one may formalize its perception to the level of purely astronomic instrument for time reckoning. I don’t think it would be correct. The directors of American film “2012” used the problem of calendar of Maya, the data of geophysics and astrology for developing of thrilling plot skilfully enough. Exactly because of that it was of great success and had strong psychological influence on audience all over the world.

Earth is a part of space which keenly reacts on any changes in the Universe, our Galaxy and Solar System. In the year of 2013 another maximum of solar activity is expected. But it is not quite usual one. In this period the maximums of solar cycles of different scales – 11-years, 22-years, 90-100-years and 300-years coincide. This is the peculiar energy resonance.

In the report of GEOCHANGE International Committee have been given the results of researches where the prolonged beginning of the 24th solar cycle is interpreted as a continuous lull before powerful “Solar storm”. In any case the forecasts which were published in the report of GEOCHANGE International Committee in 2010 have been completely confirmed by this time.

Increasing of traverse speed of the north magnetic pole for 500% also indicates the activation of energy processes in the Earth core which form the geomagnetic field of our planet. The information about energy activation of the Earth core has been lately promulgated in the results of NASA scientific researches which confirmed the earlier published information about it in the report of GEOCHANGE International Committee.

In regard to possibility of the end of the world in December of 2012 our forecast is not so pessimistic. Yes, this period will be very active from the point of view of the number and energy of strong earthquakes, tsunamis, volcano eruptions and atmospheric effects – our researches indicate it. Meanwhile, GEOCHANGE International Committee and Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes do not observe today the tendencies in changes of global geophysical and astronomical parameters which indicate the approaching of some planetary catastrophe which can be the reason of death of all humanity.

At the same time a great number of victims, flood of big territories of the Earth, and even the disappearance of a number of islands are not excluded. Strong solar flares can bring to temporary communication blackout on big territories and failing of electronic equipment on artificial satellites and on the surface of the Earth.

Activation of movement of lithospheric plates can bring to not only high seismic and volcanic activity, but also to large-scale displacement of large tectonic blocks of the Earth’s crust inside the plates that will bring to destruction of main pipelines and utility lines of communications. In this period there is expected the activation of landslide zones and there are possible the large gaps in the land, ground dilution and other events which are dangerous for people.

I don’t take this period as “Apocalypses” or “the end of the world”. To my mind, this is the conversion of our planet to the next large-scale cycle of its development, to a new energy level. After this period of geodynamic activity some geophysical parameters of the Earth can be changed, for example, the location of the magnetic poles, rotational velocity of the Earth, correlations of polar and equatorial radiuses of the planet, etc. For human civilization it can be the serious trial, but I am sure that it again will cross the threshold of its development, and may be, after that it will be able to reconsider its intellectual values.

- On the one hand your answer calms a little, on the other hand – it bothers. What must be done in order to cross the next “threshold” in the development of the Earth?

- From the beginning of 2010 the strong earthquakes, tsunamis, floods and other cataclysms which are increasing with its energy and number must have been the menacing warnings for UNO, European Union and governments of the countries for assuming concrete measures for preparation for more large-scale natural disasters. It hasn’t happened yet. Though, on the national level the great work on preparation for possible large-scale cataclysms is carried out in the USA and in some other countries.

Meanwhile, the events in Japan showed that no country, even industrially and economically very strong, can independently withstand the large-scale natural cataclysms. Only joining the efforts the humanity can step over this strength test of the nature.

It is necessary to begin the urgent using of the latest achievements of science and engineering, new technologies of the earliest notification of the population about the approaching cataclysms and their forecast, seismic stable construction, individual security facilities, new systems of communication and information transfer in the zones of natural disasters.

The last results of researches and sensational information about occurring and expected events in nature will be heard on the World Forum – International Congress and the exhibition “Natural cataclysms and global problems of modern civilization – GEOCATACLYSM- 2011” which will be held on 19-21 September 2011 in Istanbul. A great number of participants and members of the scientific committee from more than 60 countries of the world among which there are the members of the governments and parliaments of different countries, famous scientists and specialists from all over the world have already been registered in the Congress.

Thank you very much for the interesting interview. N. Kafarova.