International Committee on issues of Global Changes of the Geological Environment, “GEOCHANGE”

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Another forecast of strong earthquakes was given to the government of Japan

Press service of the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes GNFE declared official making of another forecast of strong earthquakes to the government of Japan. We asked the President of GNFE, Chairman of International Committee for Global Changes of Geological Environment, Prof. Elchin Khalilov to comment this information.

Mr. Khalilov, please, comment another forecast directed by GNFE to the government of Japan.

On 15 March 2011 GNFE gave the letter№ 002-ic/JP-011 to Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador of Japan in Azerbaijan about two imminent strong tremors with magnitude about 7 and asked to warn the government of Japan about it. To the letter were attached the graphs of recordings of stations of earthquake forecasting ATROPATENA placed in Indonesia on basis of which the forecast was made. Simultaneously the forecast was placed on the forecasts map on the site of the Global Network. The forecast was completely confirmed by two strong earthquakes on 22 March with magnitudes 6.6.

I want to remind that the forecast of the strong earthquake with M8.9 was also placed by GNFE on 9 March 2011 on our site and was given to all countries which are included into Network. This forecast was made on the grounds of recordings of intensive three-dimensional gravitational anomalies, successively recorded by all our stations: in Indonesia, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey.

Please comment the possible development of seismic situation in Japan at this moment in time.

Beginning from 24 March all our stations have shown sufficiently stable background data of the gravitational field and it gives optimism to our prognoses.

That is, judging by the data received from the stations, the seismic situation in Japan is being stabilized and the considerable tremors exceeding the magnitude 6 are not expected. I also want to show how it looks in the graphs. Aftershocks with magnitude within 5-5.5 are possible, but it is not dangerous. .

Mr.Khalilov, seismologists often sceptically and very angrily talk when commenting the possibility of short-term forecasting of earthquakes. How do you explain it?

- It is simply explained by unsuccess of seismology in the sphere of short-term forecasting of earthquakes during all history of its existence. But sooner or later in any sphere of science the breakthrough is made. It’s difficult for many people to believe that this breakthrough has been made not in the country which was recognized as a leader of seismological researches, for example, in Japan or the USA. Pay attention to these comments. All of them ring as written using carbon paper. The sceptic comments ring as follows:
-“Is it possible that the scientists of Japan couldn’t forecast their own catastrophic earthquake but someone who is in gigantic distance from Japan did it?”
- “Science hasn’t reached the level of forecasting the earthquakes”
- “That cannot happen because it never can happen.”
The comic comments are often heard: “It is impossible to forecast the earthquakes, but we have 30 American seismic stations. When we buy 40 or 50 ones we’ll be able to forecast the earthquakes with high accuracy (no comments).”

Of course it is sad to see some scientists comment the new technology and evaluate it not having any idea about our technology of forecasting the earthquakes, not even having wish to examine it, without any proof, on the grounds of only their own emotions and not having scientific grounds. Let their own conscience determine how proper and ethic it is. But let them be aware of the fact that not only head of GNFE Elchin Khalilov take part in these researches but also famous in their countries the scientists-geophysicists and seismologists from Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey and Ukraine do. These countries are full participants of the Network. On what grounds the persons who comment the technology throw discredit upon the long-term work of famous scientists of different countries?

What are the plans of GNFE?

The Global Network is going on to actively develop. In 2011 a new model of the station ATROPATENA CRYSTAL Kh11 has been put into operation, which is successfully tested. There are many innovations in it – the data recording format which allows to reduce in 5 times the memory capacity occupied by recordings of stations, the software for preliminary processing of signals, more effective electronics packages, etc.
By the end of 2011 a few more countries will be included into the Network as full and associative members. We have a lot of proposals about cooperation from many scientific centres and scientists of the world. Since this year there has begun the international project of European Union for the forecasting of earthquakes where our Institute also takes part.
But the main thing is that it is the great will and enthusiasm of all who take part in the Global Network based on understanding of relevance and importance of our work.
Soon the results of our researches will be published in international journals and then everything will be clear for many people. Soon the life itself will show who is really right.

What would you like to tell our sceptics?

I want to answer the sceptics with hasty conclusions that the “team” of our Network is steadily growing, and new and new scientists and countries impartially examined the new methods and being convinced in its efficiency, join to it.
For each comment of “doubting Thomas” we’ll answer with the forecasts officially given to the governments of the countries. On the way of development of science there always were sceptics and conservatives. But it is very good, as they are stimulators for deeper and more effective development of new scientific knowledge.

 
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