Press service of the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes GNFE declared official making of another forecast of strong earthquakes to the government of Japan. We asked the President of GNFE, Chairman of International Committee for Global Changes of Geological Environment, Prof. Elchin Khalilov to comment this information. Mr. Khalilov, please, comment another forecast directed by GNFE to the government of Japan.
I want to remind that the forecast of the strong earthquake with M8.9 was also placed by GNFE on 9 March 2011 on our site and was given to all countries which are included into Network. This forecast was made on the grounds of recordings of intensive three-dimensional gravitational anomalies, successively recorded by all our stations: in Indonesia, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey. Please comment the possible development of seismic situation in Japan at this moment in time. Beginning from 24 March all our stations have shown sufficiently stable background data of the gravitational field and it gives optimism to our prognoses. That is, judging by the data received from the stations, the seismic situation in Japan is being stabilized and the considerable tremors exceeding the magnitude 6 are not expected. I also want to show how it looks in the graphs. Aftershocks with magnitude within 5-5.5 are possible, but it is not dangerous. . Mr.Khalilov, seismologists often sceptically and very angrily talk when commenting the possibility of short-term forecasting of earthquakes. How do you explain it? - It is simply explained by unsuccess of seismology in the sphere of short-term forecasting of earthquakes during all history of its existence. But sooner or later in any sphere of science the breakthrough is made. It’s difficult for many people to believe that this breakthrough has been made not in the country which was recognized as a leader of seismological researches, for example, in Japan or the USA. Pay attention to these comments. All of them ring as written using carbon paper. The sceptic comments ring as follows: Of course it is sad to see some scientists comment the new technology and evaluate it not having any idea about our technology of forecasting the earthquakes, not even having wish to examine it, without any proof, on the grounds of only their own emotions and not having scientific grounds. Let their own conscience determine how proper and ethic it is. But let them be aware of the fact that not only head of GNFE Elchin Khalilov take part in these researches but also famous in their countries the scientists-geophysicists and seismologists from Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey and Ukraine do. These countries are full participants of the Network. On what grounds the persons who comment the technology throw discredit upon the long-term work of famous scientists of different countries? What are the plans of GNFE? The Global Network is going on to actively develop. In 2011 a new model of the station ATROPATENA CRYSTAL Kh11 has been put into operation, which is successfully tested. There are many innovations in it – the data recording format which allows to reduce in 5 times the memory capacity occupied by recordings of stations, the software for preliminary processing of signals, more effective electronics packages, etc. What would you like to tell our sceptics? I want to answer the sceptics with hasty conclusions that the “team” of our Network is steadily growing, and new and new scientists and countries impartially examined the new methods and being convinced in its efficiency, join to it. |
Another forecast of strong earthquakes was given to the government of Japan
|