International Committee on issues of Global Changes of the Geological Environment, “GEOCHANGE”

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FORECAST PROVIDED BY GNFE FOR STRONG PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE OF 18.01.2011 HAS BEEN CONFIRMED

As reported by the President of the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes Prof. Elchin Khalilov, another strong earthquake forecast has been confirmed, this time for a magnitude 7.2 earthquake which occurred in Pakistan on 18 January, 2011. The official forecast for a strong earthquake in Pakistan was provided by GNFE on the forecast map issued for the period between January 12 and 21, 2011. Pakistan is a full member of GNFE and the Pakistan State Center for Earthquake Studies is directly involved in earthquake forecasting. Earthquakes are predicted using ATROPATENA earthquake forecast stations located in Pakistan, Indonesia, Azerbaijan, and in the Middle East. These stations record abnormal gravitational signals 3-12 days before a strong earthquake and indicate the direction towards the epicenter of the expected shock. The intersection of direction-showing lines from all stations helps identify the location of the predicted earthquake.

The map on the left shows the epicenter of the Pakistan earthquake of Jan. 18, 2011 according to the U.S. Geological Survey while the right image is the earthquake forecast map by GNFE for the period between January 12 and 21, 2011 where the yellow circle is the epicenter area of the expected earthquake.

The previous confirmed forecast was produced by GNFE for the strong magnitude 6.3 earthquake that hit southern Iran on Dec. 20, 2010. The epicenter was located some 214 km south-east of the city of Zahedan. As many as three remote mountain villages in southeastern Iran were completely destroyed. More than 10 people were reported dead. On December 17, 2010 The Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes (GNFE) had placed a forecast for the Iran earthquake in the forecast map on its website. The forecast for a strong earthquake in Iran with a magnitude of over 5 and 90% probability was given for the period between December 17 and 27, 2010.

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